Valley City, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

594
FXUS63 KFGF 131730
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1130 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Most scenarios bring at least a 70 percent chance for advisory
  level winter impacts Thursday into Friday, especially from
  the Red River Valley eastward into northwest Minnesota.

&&

UPDATE
Issued at 959 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Area temperatures are currently in the mid to upper 30s but
increasing cloud coverage should limit most from climbing into
the 40s which would approach daily record highs. Forecast
otherwise remains on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

...Synopsis...

Early this morning, warm air advection continued over the FA, with
temperatures above freezing at all sites. An area of low pressure is
tracking well to our north across Manitoba and Ontario. In turn, a
tightening pressure gradient is leading to increasing westerly
winds, with gusts now being reported at several sites. A few light
radar returns are roaming around, but all precipitation has remained
a light, unimpactful cold rain. As we go through today, the low
will continue to track to our north and east towards the Great
Lakes. As it does so, a cold front will be dragged down out of
Canada late this afternoon into tonight. Temperatures will fall
quickly from the 30s to the teens, with northern zones dropping
below zero by Wednesday morning. Winds will also switch
direction to be out of the north.

Responsible for this cool down is an amplifying ridge over the
western US. As the ridge continues to build northward, upper level
flow over the Canadian Prairies and much of the central US will be
stuck in a northerly direction, advecting down the much cooler air.
Another result of being stuck in northerly flow will be the ability
for storm systems to ride down out of Canada, one of which will do
so late this week.

...Winter System Thursday into Friday...

Very little has changed over the past 24 hours regarding how the
general synoptic pattern evolves late week, with a stronger
system passing through Thursday into Friday. An area of falling
snow on Thursday will give way to more light snow and much
stronger winds on Friday. Several factors will determine the
severity of visibility reductions on Friday from blowing snow.
First, how warm temperatures get on Thursday will impact the
state of the freshest snow, as the current snowpack will be
unblowable after several days of rain/warm temperatures. Second,
how much falling snow will there be on Friday accompanying the
strong northerly winds? The more widespread falling snow we
have, the more likely it is that visibility reductions will be
more severe and widespread. Third is how much snow falls on
Thursday. If we get towards the upper end of guidance, a few
inches of new snow could fall. If we were to get several inches
of new snow and they remain uncrusted and blowable, a lack of
falling snow on Friday would not matter as much, as there would
be sufficient snow to blow. All told, there remains significant
uncertainty regarding how this event will evolve, with each
piece of the forecast hinging on another. The floor and ceiling
of this event has not really changed much, with the probability
for advisory impacts or greater around 70%. Check back for more
updates as they become available over the next couple of days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1130 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Cigs between 1500-3500 for all sites with BKN decks
occasionally becoming SCT leading to categories changes with
little confidence in when or where. Winds NW to N overnight
becoming light to variable by the end of the period tomorrow
morning. Gusts up to 30 mph will be dropping off tonight with
cigs going widely VFR by sunrise Wednesday.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...Rafferty
AVIATION...TT